SnapHostThree things to know
The president's party lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. See the pattern
Republicans hold a thin majority. Markets give Democrats about a 91% chance of taking it. See the odds
Democrats need a net gain of four seats. About seven races are toss ups, and markets lean Democratic at 64%. See the swing races
What the midterms are
Midterms fall halfway through a president's four year term, and they decide who controls Congress for the next two years.
435 seats, two year terms. Seats are shared out by population, so California has 52 and Wyoming has 1. A majority is 218.
100 seats, six year terms. Every state has two senators whatever its size, and about a third are elected every two years. A majority is 51, or 50 plus the Vice President's tie breaking vote.
36 of 50 states elect the head of their state government this year, along with thousands of state and local offices and ballot questions.
Why control of Congress matters
The president needs Congress to pass laws and budgets. Whichever party wins a chamber picks its leaders, chairs every committee and decides which bills get a vote.
- Laws and spending: both chambers must pass the same bill before the president can sign it.
- Investigations: committee majorities can issue subpoenas and hold hearings on the government.
- Impeachment: the House impeaches by simple majority; removal needs 67 senators.
- Appointments: the Senate confirms cabinet members, ambassadors and federal judges, including Supreme Court justices.
The president's party almost always loses House seats
Who holds power today
Republicans control both chambers, the House by only a handful of seats.
House of Representatives
One independent, Kevin Kiley of California, left the Republican Party in March 2026 and still caucuses with Republicans. Two seats are vacant. Source: House Press Gallery.
Senate
Independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders vote with Democrats. In a 50 to 50 tie, Vice President JD Vance casts the deciding vote, so Democrats need 51. Source: current senators.
net Senate seats for a majority. Only 13 of the 35 seats up are held by Democrats, so they must hold those and flip four.
net House seats for a majority, before the new maps are counted (chapter 7).
Republicans won the House while Democrats gained a Senate seat. Republicans won the national House vote 50.0% to 47.3%.
State by state
Five big states hold over a third of all House seats, while in the Senate a small state counts as much as California.
California, Texas, Florida, New York and Pennsylvania hold 161 of the 435 House seats
Seats won and House votes for each party in 2022, Democrats in blue and Republicans in red. Some districts had only one major party candidate, which lowers the other party's vote in states such as California, Texas and Florida. Sources: Clerk of the House, FEC.
The latest odds
Markets and models agree Democrats are favoured for the House; the Senate is closer, with a Democratic edge.
House control
Senate control
Prediction markets are prices on real money bets, read as the crowd's estimated probability. They are not polls and they can be wrong.
| Source | House, D chance | Senate, D chance |
|---|
The House: 17 toss ups, 12 of them held by Republicans
Cook Political Report ratings for all 435 seats, 23 October. Toss ups: . Source: Cook Political Report.
Senate races, closest first
Bar shows the Polymarket chance the Democrat (or independent, shown in amber) wins, 24 October. Ratings from Cook Political Report, 20 October. Poll averages from RealClearPolling. Sources: Polymarket odds, Cook Senate ratings.
Governor races, closest first
Polymarket and Cook Political Report, 23 to 24 October. Sources: Cook governor ratings, market odds.
Build your own Senate
If every market favourite wins, Democrats would hold 52 seats. Click a race to change who wins it.
Seats not on the ballot: 34 for Democrats and allied independents, 31 for Republicans. Safe seats are filled in for you.
The swing races
The Senate runs through about ten states, several of which Trump won comfortably in 2024.
What might decide it
Low approval, high prices and the Iran war weigh on the president's party; new district maps help it.
approve, 60.4% disapprove (RealClearPolitics average, 24 Oct). Silver Bulletin net approval is minus 24.3, its lowest reading of the term.
Asked which party they want for Congress, voters pick Democrats 50.5% to 42.4% (RealClearPolitics, to 20 Oct).
inflation in September, with gasoline up 34.2% on a year. A gallon averages $4.29 (AAA, 23 Oct).
unemployment in September, with only 29,000 jobs added.
The economy tops every voter's list
The Iran war
The war that began on 28 February has pushed oil near $100 a barrel. In an AP NORC poll, 64% call it very important to their vote. On 8 October the president pledged not to strike Iran before the election. Al Jazeera
History
Presidents below 50% approval have lost 36 House seats on average in their midterm, against 14 when above it. Gallup
Turnout
Over 18 million people had voted early by 22 October. Early ballots lean Democratic in most states, but Republicans tend to vote on the day itself. ABC News
New maps give Republicans about 9 extra seats before a vote is cast
Nine states will use new House maps this year, drawn outside the usual once a decade cycle. Four of those redraws, all in the South, followed an April Supreme Court ruling (Louisiana v. Callais) that narrowed the Voting Rights Act.
Estimated seats gained by the party that drew the map. Not in effect for 2026: Missouri (court hold), Virginia (struck down) and Indiana (rejected). Source: Ballotpedia.
Election night, in your time zone
The first polls close at midnight GMT, but some races will take days or weeks to call.
Races that will take longer
- California counts mail ballots that arrive up to 10 November, and several redrawn House seats are close.
- Alaska uses ranked choice voting; if no one passes 50%, the count runs on 18 November.
- Maine also uses ranked choice voting for the Senate race; the June primary count took 10 days.
- Georgia needs a winner above 50%, or there is a runoff on 1 December.
- Louisiana holds runoffs for House seats on 12 December.
In 2022 it took more than a week to know who controlled the House. Times shown for most of each state; states across two time zones close in stages. Sources: Kalshi News, Alaska Public Media, The Maine Monitor.
Your call: who will control the Senate?
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